Metals in 2006-Fire and ice/Metal prices on ice, but a warm-up is kindling

摘要

As predicted, demand eclipsed supply for most metals in 2005. Volatile pricing and unpredictable, often unattainable supply throughout 2004 and the first half of 2005 finally stabilized toward the end of the year, albeit at very high price levels. For 2006 most metals prices will be on ice-the same or only slightly higher or lower than they were in the last quarter of 2005. Copper prices may be the one exception, predicted by one source to melt by as much as 25 percent. Recently lowering raw materials prices, customarily a leading indicator of where metals prices are headed, are flames licking at the block of ice. The international coking coal price is expected to decline. Coke prices already have dropped considerably. The price of stainless steel's raw materials, nickel and chromium, are predicted to decrease by 10 percent and 5 percent, respectively. Steel scrap is considered a wild card, at least since 2004's meltdown, so speculation about the price of scrap is somewhat tentative and contradictory.