West and Central African iron ore development and its impact on world prices

摘要

The focus of the paper is on the potential of iron ore supplies from West and Central Africa to enter the export market over the short and medium terms and how this could impact the supply-side capacity and market price. To assess this, three export development scenarios (low, medium and high risk) are constructed for 17 iron ore mines (over 27 production expansion projects) in West and Central Africa. The projections for African iron ore are compared with the latest medium-term import forecasts andsuggest that the development of West and Central African iron ore has the potential to create significant downward pressure on the price of iron ore exports over the medium term. The increased export capacity could push marginal producers -mainly in China but also in India and elsewhere - out of the market.