Effects of Humidity Variation on the Hantavirus Infection and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Occurrence in Subtropical China

摘要

Infection rates of rodents have a significant influence on the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). In this study, four cities and two counties with high HERS incidence in eastern Hunan Province in China were studied, and surveillance data of rodents, as well as HFRS cases and related environmental variables from 2007 to 2010, were collected. Results indicate that the distribution and infection rates of rodents are closely associated with environmental conditions. Hantavirus infections in rodents were positively correlated with temperature vegetation dryness index and negatively correlated with elevation. The predictive risk maps based on multivariate regression model revealed that the annual variation of infection risks is small, whereas monthly variation is large and corresponded well to the seasonal variation of human HFRS incidence. The identification of risk factors and risk prediction provides decision support for rodent surveillance and the prevention and control of HERS.