The Central China North-South Seismic Belt: Seismicity, Ergodicity, and Five-year PI Forecast in Testing

摘要

Instrumentally recorded seismicity from 1970/01/01 to 2014/01/01 of the central China north-south seismic belt (21.0A degrees-41.5A degrees N, 97.5A degrees-107.5A degrees E) was analyzed, emphasizing the applicability of the predictive algorithms based on the assumptions of meta-stable equilibrium. The seismicity in this region was shown to exhibit ergodicity from 1980 to the present, with sub-region dependence, and interrupted by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. pattern informatics algorithm, a statistical physics-based predictive model for five-year time scale, is put to forward forecast test for the period 2014/01/01 to 2019/01/01.