Tsunami Recurrence Function: Structure, Methods of Creation, and Application for Tsunami Hazard Estimates

摘要

This paper considers a theoretical basement for a Poissonian probability model for tsunami run-up heights, with emphasis on the tsunami recurrence function. It is shown that the tsunami recurrence function of a general type contains at least two scale parameters: asymptotic frequency of big tsunamis f related to the considered region and characteristic tsunami height H~* for the considered location in the region. A method for the correct statistical evaluation of the parameters f and H~*, and their variations, using observational data from tsunami catalogues, is created. The paper considers some theoretical and applied problems related to the tsunami recurrence function, an example of a two-parameter tsunami hazard map, and also the problem of probabilistic tsunami hazard estimation.