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Asset price and wealth dynamics under heterogeneous expectations

机译:异质预期下的资产价格和财富动态

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摘要

In order to characterize asset price and wealth dynamics arising from the interaction of heterogeneous agents with CRRA utility, a discrete-time stationary model in terms of return and wealth proportions (among different types of agents) is established. When fundamentalists and chartists are the main heterogeneous agents in the model, it is found that in the presence of heterogeneous agents the stationary model can have multiple steady states. The steady state is unstable when the chartists extrapolate strongly and (locally) stable when they extrapolate weakly. The convergence to the steady state follows an optimal selection principle-the return and wealth proportions tend to the steady state which has relatively higher return. More importantly, heterogeneity can generate instability which, under the stochastic processes of the dividend yield and extrapolation rates, results in switching of the return among different states, such as steady-state, periodic and aperiodic cycles from time to time. The model has is finally developed displays the essential characteristics of the standard asset price dynamics model assumed in continuous-time finance, in that the asset price is fluctuating around a geometrically growing trend. The model also displays the volatility clustering that is an essential feature of empirically observed asset returns.
机译:为了表征因异质代理人与CRRA效用的相互作用而产生的资产价格和财富动态,建立了收益和财富比例(在不同类型的代理人之间)的离散时间固定模型。当原教旨主义者和宪章主义者是模型中的主要异质性主体时,发现存在异质性主体时,平稳模型可以具有多个稳态。当宪章强推时,稳态是不稳定的;当宪兵弱推时,稳态是(局部)稳定的。向稳态的收敛遵循最优选择原则-收益和财富比例趋于具有相对较高收益的稳态。更重要的是,异质性会产生不稳定性,在股息收益率和外推率的随机过程中,会导致收益率在不同状态之间进行切换,例如时态,周期性和非周期性。最终开发出的模型展示了连续时间金融中假设的标准资产价格动态模型的基本特征,因为资产价格围绕几何增长趋势波动。该模型还显示了波动性聚类,这是根据经验观察到的资产收益的基本特征。

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