Evaluation of the Algerian Photovoltaic Market Potential

摘要

The Algerian energy sector will certainly face a crisis this century with the gradual diminution of oil and gas reserves estimated at 4.2 billion Toe (Tons of oil equivalent), which can last for only a few decades at today's production levels. In the meantime the population and its energy needs will have doubled. This situation is complicated by the fact that the energy sector is Algeria's major source of revenue, and finances the national economy at a level of 66 percent. Many decision-makers now agree that time has come to implement a new energy policy, based on energy diversification, and to set up new mechanisms. The Algerian energy sector is still dominated by hydrocarbons, and has promoted a major effort to reach a mean national electrification rate of 96 percent. Nevertheless, the remaining zones are very isolated and widespread. The conventional electrification solutions or grid extensions are no longer economically viable. The recourse to renewable energies in general and PV solar energy in particular has become a reality. This source represents a good alternative for 85 percent of Algerian territory, which is composed of arid and semi-arid zones, characterized by low population density and limited energy needs. These regions represent a strategic alternative in order to reverse the population migration and to encourage a new migration to the south, since northern Algeria is less and less welcoming (high population density, unemployment, shrinkage of agricultural land, inflation). In this paper we try to evaluate the potential of the Algerian PV market in order to inform decision-makers and future investors. To this end, and after identifying the PV solar energy segments, we attempt to estimate them under different scenarios.