Winning major international target archery competitions

摘要

Major international target archery competitions usually include a 72-arrow ranking round and then one-on-one knockout matches conducted over a small number of arrows until one archer remains. This article considers the relation between an archer's placing in the ranking round and the likelihood of that archer finishing with a high place following the one-on-one matches. The archer's ranking round score has been used as an indication of the archer's ability in the matches and used to calculate the probability of the archer winning sufficient matches in succession to succeed in the competition. It has been found that the probability of the archer winning the competition decreases exponentially with ranking place. This has been compared with the results from all major international target archery competitions between 2000 and 2014 inclusive and provides a good match. Given the importance of the ranking round, it is suggested that an archer needs to finish in about the top 8 places in the ranking round if the archer is to have good prospects of winning a medal. The score trend for eighth place provides an indication of the likely score required in future competitions, such as the 2016 Olympic Games.