Use of Bayesian Belief Network techniques to explore the interaction of biosecurity practices on the probability of porcine disease occurrence in Canada

摘要

Identification and quantification of pathogen threats need to be a priority for the Canadian swine industry so that resources can be focused where they will be most effective. Here we create a tool based on a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to model the interaction between biosecurity practices and the probability of occurrence of four different diseases on Canadian swine farms. The benefits of using this novel approach, in comparison to other methods, is that it enables us to explore both the complex interaction and the relative importance of biosecurity practices on the probability of disease occurrence.