Estimation of regional renewable water resources under the impact of climate change.

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to develop an estimation model for regional renewable water resources under climate change conditions. Working with Japan's high-resolution GCM-type JMA/MRI TL959L60 future rainfall modeling data in SRES-A1B condition, first we revise the modeling data through the Quadrant Transformation Method (QTM), and then use the Thornthwaite method for potential evapotranspiration to establish regional evapotranspiration data and estimate future renewable water resources. This study focuses on Taiwan's four water resource regions to estimate renewable water resources for each region between 2080 and 2099. The results indicate that average annual renewable water resource volume for Taiwan as a whole will drop by 12.3% from 67.5 to 59.2 km3, as compared with the average from 1949 through 2000.Digital Object Identifier http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10333-011-0274-2