Estimation of potential water requirements using water footprint for the target of food self-sufficiency in South Korea

摘要

South Korea's food self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) dramatically decreased from 56 % in 1980 to 27 % in 2010, due to changes in food production and consumption patterns. Naturally, the changes in food self-sufficiency and consumption patterns will affect the world agricultural trade. This study aims to analyze trends in water footprints (WFs) on the basis of statistics for per capita food consumption in the last 25 years. The WFs for potential water requirements (WFs(PWR)) were estimated using food production and consumption scenarios for the targets of the SSRs in 2015 and 2020. The WFs for per capita food consumption (WFs(cap)) were estimated at 512.9 m(3) (1985) and 822.9 m(3) (2010). Cereals and meats accounted for 36.3 and 21.5 % of the total WFs(cap) in 1985, and 18.3 and 38.6 % in 2010, respectively. This implies that with economic development, Korea's dietary patterns have changed from cereal to meat-oriented. To achieve the targets of 52 % (2015) and 55 % (2020) food SSR based on calories, additional WFs(PWR) are estimated to be 1255.5 Mm(3) (2015) and 1923.9 Mm(3) (2020). Results of this study are expected to be a useful basis for making long-term policies for sustainable agricultural production and water management from technical and social perspectives.