Ronald Freedman on American Population Growth: A View from 1957

摘要

Haifa century ago, in 1957, the American baby boom reached its peak. The period total fertility rate (TFR) had climbed to 3.76-a level wholly unexpected even in the immediate postwar years. In combination with the then prevailing pattern of early childbearing and already fairly low mortality, this yielded an intrinsic rate of natural increase slightly above 2 percent per year. Such a rate implied, even without immigration, a long-run population growth potential unprecedented in US history. How shouldthis demographic upsurge be interpreted? And what was the likely future demographic course of the United States? These were questions of manifest public interest. From the vantage point of the crest of the baby boom, Ronald Freedman addressed them in anessay titled "The planned family and American population growth, " which appeared in the March 195 7 issue of The Antioch Review. * At the time Freedman was already a well-known social demographer, director of the first national fertility survey in theUS (Growth of American Families); he was to become a leader in worldwide research on fertility and family planning. His 1957 essay is reproduced below in full. Written in nontechnical language but reflecting the best understanding of the factors underlying US fertility trends, Freedman's commentary provides a compelling narrative for today's readers.