European Demographic Forecasts Have Not Become More Accurate Over the Past 25 Years

摘要

ARE RECENT POPULATION forecasts more accurate than those that were computed a few decades ago? Since the 1960s, better demographic data have become available, behavioral theories have been refined, and more advanced techniques of analysis and forecasting have been developed (Crimmins 1993; Preston 1993). The demographic and statistical literatures offer a continuous accumulation of knowledge. A reasonable assumption is that this progress has led to more accurate demographic forecasts. To provide a thorough check of the assumption of improved forecast performance, I have analyzed the accuracy of historical population forecasts produced by the national statistical agencies of 14 countries.