Historical population estimates: unraveling the consensus

摘要

During the mid-twentieth century a remarkable consensus was reached on the history of world and continental population growth after 1650. The agreed figures were widely taught, approximately reproduced in most of the writing on the theme, and endorsed by United Nations publications. Further estimates were attempted in the last third of the century. They did little to change the consensus figures from 1650, but they supplemented them by going back to the beginning of the modern era or further. Another attempt is currently being made to assess that growth, also covering the last two millennia. It seems timely to explain and assess the original consensus and its successors. How certain were the numbers? How did they receive a kind of official recognition? How were the sources identified? Are the limits reached by the researchers as they went back in time likely to be overcome by new investigation? Is the new research in danger of being contaminated by the preexisting consensus? What were the aims ofthe chief players and were their assessments independent of one another? This essay examines these questions and tests the weakest element in the original consensus, that on Africa, building on earlier work by Caldwell (1985).