WILDLIFE POPULATION DYNAMICS ESTIMATING DEVICE, WILDLIFE POPULATION DYNAMICS ESTIMATING PROGRAM AND WILDLIFE POPULATION DYNAMICS ESTIMATING METHOD

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a wildlife population dynamics estimating device capable of improving accuracy of a posterior distribution and improving accuracy in wildlife population estimation by increasing setting accuracy of a prior distribution.;SOLUTION: This population dynamics estimating device 100 is a wildlife population dynamics estimating device that estimates wildlife population dynamics through Bayesian estimation of using a prior distribution about the wildlife population dynamics to derive a posterior distribution, and comprises a CPU 1 that, in a state where a kurtosis of the prior distribution is adjusted so as to correspond to the wildlife population dynamics in a first function capable of at least adjusting the kurtosis independently among an expected value, dispersion and the kurtosis which specify the prior distribution, uses the first function to generate the prior distribution of the wildlife population dynamics, and uses the prior distribution generated by adjusting the kurtosis and known data on the wildlife population dynamics to generate the posterior distribution of the wildlife population dynamics.;COPYRIGHT: (C)2015,JPO&INPIT