Mating disruption or mass trapping? Numerical simulation analysis of a control strategy for lepidopteran pests

摘要

I have constructed a simulation model applicable to both mass trapping and mating disruption for lepidopteran insect pests. The basic structure of the model is based on mass trapping model proposed by Knipling and McGuire (Agric Info Bull 308:1-20 1966), but this was modified to include mechanistic competition among females and lures. Several new implications are derived from the model. (1) Long-living pests are hard to control. (2) Protandry does not improve control efficiency for pests with low survival rates. (3) Sexual communication across large distances is more difficult to control than that across a short range. (4) There is an upper limit to improvement which can be achieved by increasing the number of pheromone traps. (5) Improving the catching efficiency of traps does not improve mating suppression although improvement of lure efficiency does substantially. The last implication, in particular, has practical importance. If an efficient lure attracts males or inhibits their ability to locate females and mate, mating disruption works as well as mass trapping with the same number of lures. In such circumstances mating disruption should be preferred to mass trapping because the former does not incur the cost of the trapping devices. Mass trapping should, however, be considered in preference to mating disruption if the lure is not efficient enough and no other methods are available.