PREDICTABILITY IN THE LORENZ LOW-ORDER GENERAL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION MODEL

摘要

A technique devised to characterize and measure predictability recently introduced [L.W. Salvino et al., Phys. Lett. A 209 (1995) 327] is applied to study predictability of the general circulation of the atmosphere by means of a numerical study of a new model introduced by Lorenz for the time evolution of the global wind current and chains of eddies that are the main features of the global behavior of the atmosphere [E.N. Lorenz, Tellus 42 A (1984) 98]. In particular, attention is focused on the effect on predictability of the choice of the signal to study, of the seasonal nature of this signal, and of the presence of statistical errors affecting the data points. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. [References: 18]