Water is critical to the future development of cities, but it is also the major limiting factor for the city development, especially for large urban agglomerations. In order to quantitatively evaluate water resources, a new model is presented in this paper which can effectively analyse the variation of water resources with the development of cities. Based on maximum supportable population of water resources, the central idea of the conceptual model focus on the social, economic, environmental, ecological backgrounds, etc. This paper calculates the maximum supportable population of water resources under capacity and accurately predicts the natural-growth population, which contribute to a qualitative estimation on water resources carrying capacity in the region compared with two populations of the future. According to the UN water scarcity map, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is selected in the paper as an example to research where water resources are heavily overloaded in China, and the reasons for water scarcity is explained accordingly. The South-to-North water diversion project is selected as intervention measure to evaluate water resources of this region. The results is that the capacity of water resources is insufficient in 2025, which will lead to water scarcity again in Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei region.
展开▼
