Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Regional Trade Agreements: A Product-level Analysis

摘要

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), as of January 2013, 546 regional trade agreements (RTAs) have been notified to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the WTO since 1948, and 354 RTAs are in force.' While the total number of notified RTAs was 124 for 36 years from 1948 to 1994, 422 additional RTAs were notified in the 18 years from 1995 to 2010. In the light of the rapid expansion of RTAs, it is only natural that a large number of studies concerning their effects on foreign trade have been carried out from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Of these studies, ex post-evaluation plays a central role in empirical studies. Although the main object of these studies is to verify a very simple question, whether RTAs have trade creation and/or trade diversion effects, there seems to be little agreement as to the nature of the impacts of an RTA on trade flows.2