Box 3.1. Output Synchronicity in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan and in the Caucasus and Central Asia

摘要

Over the past decade, growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) and the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) has become more synchronized with developments in other advanced and emerging market economies. Correlations between annual output growth in the MENAP and CCA countries and the rest of the world increased to moderate levels during 2003-12 from the low levels a decade earlier (Figure 3.1.1). The increase in output synchronicity likely reflects a number of factors, including greater trade openness of the MENAP and CCA countries, increased labor migration and remittance flows, and large shocks, such as the recent global financial crisis.