III. PREVIOUS EVIDENCE OF HYSTERESIS

摘要

This paper will confess to major gaps in our understanding of hysteresis, but argue that it clearly exists in some form. That is, there is strong evidence against the hypothesis that movements in the NAIRU are independent of aggregate demand.rnHere I discuss evidence for hysteresis in previous work. I emphasize two papers from some time ago: Ball (1997) and Ball (1999). The reason I focus on my own past work is not narcissism (or, at least, that's not the only reason). Beyond my work, there isn't much literature to review, as most researchers of the 21st century have ignored hysteresis. However, the Boston Fed's invitation to write about the topic has rekindled my hope that economists will take it seriously.