Simulation of forest-based carbon balances for Germany: a contribution to the ‘carbon debt’ debate

摘要

The aim of this paper is to estimate the future carbon balance of wood use inrnGermany combining a national forest inventory data-driven forest growth modelrnwith information about German harvested wood products markets and takingrninto account material and energy substitution effects. In a scenario analysis, wernassess impacts of different forest management options, change of market sharernof harvested wood products as well as changes of the national energy mix. Additionally,rnthe model settings and assumptions that predominantly determine thernresults are identified and discussed. The simulation results show that only a radicalrnchange of forest management in Germany would cause net carbon emissions.rnThe continuation of current forest management or a higher share of high yieldrntree species as well as a change of market shares of wood and wood productsrnwould result in a net carbon sequestration in German forest and harvested woodrnproducts carbon pools. Considering substitution effects, even the net carbonrnemissions of a radically changed forest management would be over compensatedrnand the carbon balance of all other scenarios would become even more positive.rnLooking at the most decisive factors regarding our simulation results, the initialrntreatment of the forest carbon pool, the starting year for the simulations and thernpresent forest structure are most crucial for further accumulated net carbon poolrnchanges.