Evaluation of Vulnerability to Extreme Climatic Events in the Brazilian Amazonia: Methodological Proposal to the Rio Acre Basin

摘要

The southern border of the Brazilian Amazon is one of the most sensitive areas to deforestation in Brazil. In addition to problems related to changes in land use, new issues are emerging, including climate change and its negative effects on the regional hydrological cycle. In recent years considerable research has been undertaken focusing on climate change and its effects on Amazon Biodiversity, carbon cycle, fire incidence and even on regional water resources, but there is very little research linking territorial planning and public policies to prospective planning scenarios and climate change and the necessary adaptation or mitigation actions to address climate vulnerability. This study examines issues pertaining to social, economic and environmental vulnerability, including new challenges posed by climate change. Examples of environmental problems related to climate dynamics of the Rio Acre Basin are floods and dry periods such as the major drought of 2005 and the 2009 flood. The use of methodology for integrated assessment of vulnerability to river basins in Amazon Region constitutes a valuable instrument for territorial planning, since it takes into account both the challenges of poverty and the environmental fragility, as well the possible aggravations of extreme climatic events in the future.