Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in the water source area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project

摘要

This work investigates how climate change may affect streamflow in the water source area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The IPCC AR4 multi-mode climate models and weather generator were used to generate future possible local meteorological variables, which were downscaled and used in a SWAT model to simulate the future streamflow regime. The results exhibit a significant increase in temperature and a slight increase in precipitation over three benchmark peri ods. Streamflow decreases in the 2020s and increases after the 2040s. These results raise questions about the future availability of water resources.