Decision analysis of polluted sites a fuzzy set approach

摘要

A decision analysis based model (DAPS 1.0, Decision Analysis of Polluted Sites) has been developed to evaluate risks that pol- luted sites might pose to human health. Pollutants present in soils and sediments can potentially migrate from source to receptor(s), via different pathways. In the developed model, pathways are simulated via transport models (i.e. groundwater transport model, runoff-erosion model, air diffusion model, and sediment diffusion, and resuspension model in water bodies). Humans can be affec- ted by pollutant migration through land and water use. Health risks can arise from ingestion of and dermal contact with polluted water and soil, as well as through inhalation of polluted air. Quantitative estimates of risks are calculated for both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic pollutants. Being very heterogeneous, soil and sediment systems are characterized by uncertain parameters. Concepts of fuzzy set theory have been adopted to account for uncertainty in the input parameters which are represented by fuzzy numbers. An inference model using fuzzy logic has been constructed for reasoning in the decision analysis.