Housing bubble contagion from city centre to suburbs

摘要

Most previous studies have reported that housing prices diffuse from the city centre to surrounding areas. However, these studies have overlooked the fact that housing prices comprise fundamental and bubble prices. We investigated whether bubble prices also diffuse from the city centre to suburbs and whether fundamental or bubble prices promote housing price diffusion. We focused on the movement of housing bubbles from the city centre to the suburbs. Using data for the Taipei metropolitan area from 1973 to 2014 for empirical analysis, our state-space model estimates statistically significant fundamental and bubble prices in Taipei City (city centre) and New Taipei City (suburbs). Engle-Granger cointegration test results reveal that the housing and bubble prices of the two cities are cointegrated; however, fundamental prices are not. F statistics reveal that the Granger causality of bubble prices (the central city Granger causing changes in the suburbs) is more significant and powerful than that of the fundamental prices. Therefore, we demonstrate that housing bubbles force housing price diffusion. In addition, when bubble prices spread from the city centre to the suburbs, the housing bubble in the suburbs is larger than that in the city centre, implying that the suburbs have greater potential for a bubble burst crisis called the bubble contagion. Authorities should pay more attention to the bubble contagion and must address the problem of high housing prices in the suburbs to prevent this bubble from bursting