Can a City Successfully Shrink? Evidence from Survey Data on Neighborhood Quality

摘要

Urban policymakers and planners tend to view population decline as a bad thing and a vast infrastructure of funding and regulation reinforces this idea. An emerging body of research has challenged this mindset by reframing decline as shrinkage and experimenting with new policy tools under the rubric of smart decline. But the question of whether decline impairs quality of life in cities is a conceptually murky one. This paper operationalizes quality of life by examining survey data for 38 U.S. cities on perceptions of neighborhood quality. The results show a high level of heterogeneity among shrinking cities in terms of perceptions of neighborhood quality, with some cities experiencing both loss in housing and population while increasing overall perceptions of neighborhood quality. Future research ought to probe these relationships further to better understand how smart decline might affect neighborhood change.