首页> 中文期刊> 《统计与信息论坛》 >中国城市空气质量的“春节效应”分析--来自31个重点城市的经验证据

中国城市空气质量的“春节效应”分析--来自31个重点城市的经验证据

         

摘要

Air pollution is becoming a hot topic during recent years .In 2014 spring festival ,many cities in Shandong , Hebei ,Jiangsu and Shaanxi showed heavy polluted air condition .Based on 31 key cities'air quality index ,pollutant emissions ,population density ,industry proportion ,area ,passenger traffic data around the Spring Festival during 2007 -2012 and 2014 ,this paper analyzes w hether "spring festival effect "exists in urban air quality . T he results show that China's urban air quality has "Spring festival effect",especially "post -holiday effect".During the Spring Festival ,the air pollution index is about 6 .37% higher than usual .Central heating area's air pollution index is about 37 .04% higher than the non-central heating area's air pollution index .In 2014 ,the significant " post -holiday effect" is mainly due to PM2 .5 , PM10 emissions'large decrease after spring festival compared with during the Spring Festival .Strict control on the total amount of fireworks during the Spring Festival and also trying to improve the heating method ,heating sources should be considered in order to prevent air pollution .%近年来,空气污染成为大家十分关注的话题。2014年春节期间,山东、河北、江苏、陕西等省份的多个城市空气质量指数频频爆表,出现了严重的空气污染。分别以2007-2012年、2014年31个重点城市春节期间及其前后的空气质量指数、污染物排放量及人口密度、工业比重、所处区域、客运量等资料为基础,分析了31个重点城市空气质量是否存在显著的“春节效应”。研究表明,城市空气质量的“春节效应”主要表现为“节后效应”。春节期间的空气污染指数比非春节期间高出约6.37%,集中供暖区域的空气污染指数比非集中供暖区域高出约37.04%。2014年城市空气质量存在显著“节后效应”的主要原因是PM 2.5、PM 10在春节期间的排放量显著高于春节后的排放量。从总量上严格控制春节期间烟花爆竹的燃放数量,并尽快改善北方城市的供暖方式、供暖来源应作为防治空气污染的考虑方向。

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