Causal analysis of aircraft turnaround time for process reliability evaluation and disruptions' identification

摘要

In this study, a causal analysis of the airport turnaround processes is presented, which is a key factor to enhance the air traffic management reliability. Cause-effect relationship analysis demands for a knowledge representation technique that considers the stochastic, dynamic and synchronous nature of the turnaround process, and allows representing both the structure and the different ways in which the sub-processes can be influenced. In this work an exhaustive timed evaluation of the different perturbations that can affect the turnaround time due to precedence task interdependencies is presented. This analysis is used to illustrate the complexity of the turnaround process at operational level (e.g. dynamic critical paths) and to provide a comprehensive turnaround behaviour analysis by taking advantage of causal methods and simulation models as a useful tool to improve turnaround reliability by a better understanding of the impact of induced delays on the full turnaround process.