On the potential for recognising of social interaction and social learning in modelling travellers' change of behaviour under uncertainty

摘要

This study aims to investigate the potential of incorporating social interaction and social learning in modelling travellers' change of behaviour under uncertainty. The interdependent situation between travellers in using the road as a public good is considered a source of uncertainty to be studied. The role of social information in reducing the level of uncertainty is investigated. The research methodology utilises laboratory and simulation experiments. A social interdependence situation which is formulated as a hypothetical employer-based demand management initiative in reducing car use is used as the case study. A laboratory experiment demonstrates the dynamic processes of travel behaviour in making repeated travel decisions. Analyses on group and individual behaviours of travellers provide some indications about the existence of some types of social and individual learning mechanisms in their decision-making. The results of the laboratory experiment also provide basic information for developing a simulation model in the next stage of the study. The simulation experiment utilises an agent-based simulation model to simulate and analyse behaviours of individuals in larger environments, larger group sizes, longer time periods and various situational settings. The simulation experiments provide indications, which are supported by the evidence obtained from the laboratory experiment, that social information may have both positive and negative effects on individuals' behaviour, depending on the form of social learning mechanisms that are used by travellers. Providing social information does not necessarily reduce the uncertainty level; however, it is shown to do so when social learning strongly exists among travellers.