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On the potential for recognising of social interaction and social learning in modelling travellers' change of behaviour under uncertainty

机译:论在不确定性下的旅行者行为变化建模中认识社交互动和社会学习的潜力

摘要

This study aims to investigate the potential of incorporating social interaction and social learning in modelling travellers’ change of behaviour under uncertainty. The interdependent situation between travellers in using the road as a public good is considered a source of uncertainty to be studied. The role of social information in reducing the level of uncertainty is investigated. The research methodology utilizes laboratory and simulation experiments. A social interdependency situation which is formulated as a hypothetical employer-based demand management initiative in reducing car use is used as the case study. A laboratory experiment demonstrates the dynamic processes of travel behaviour in making repeated travel decisions. Analyses on group and individual behaviours of travellers provide some indications about the existence of some types of social and individual learning mechanism in their decision making. The results of the laboratory experiment also provide basic information for developing a simulation model in the next stage of the study. The simulation experiment utilizes an agent-based simulation model to simulate and analyse behaviours of individuals in larger environments, larger group sizes, longer time periods, and various situational settings. The simulation experiments provide indications, which are supported by the evidence obtained from the laboratory experiment, that social information may have both positive and negative effects on individuals’ behaviour, depending on the form of social learning mechanisms that are used by travellers. Providing social information does not necessarily reduce the uncertainty level, however, it is shown to do so when social learning strongly exists among travellers.
机译:这项研究旨在探讨在不确定性下将社交互动和社会学习纳入旅行者行为变化建模的潜力。旅行者将道路用作公共物品之间相互依存的情况被认为是存在不确定性的来源。研究了社会信息在减少不确定性方面的作用。研究方法利用实验室和模拟实验。案例研究使用了一种社会相互依存的情况,该情况被表述为假设的基于雇主的需求管理计划,以减少汽车的使用。实验室实验演示了反复做出出行决策时出行行为的动态过程。对旅行者群体和个人行为的分析为他们的决策中存在某种类型的社会和个人学习机制提供了一些迹象。实验室实验的结果还为在下一步研究中开发仿真模型提供了基本信息。该模拟实验利用基于代理的模拟模型来模拟和分析个体在较大环境,较大团体规模,较长时间段以及各种情况下的行为。模拟实验提供了指示,并得到了来自实验的证据的支持,即社交信息可能对旅行者的行为产生正面和负面影响,具体取决于旅行者使用的社交学习机制的形式。提供社交信息并不一定会降低不确定性水平,但是,当旅行者中强烈存在社交学习时,事实证明这样做是可以做到的。

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