Travel demand forecasts improved by using cross-sectional data from multiple time points

摘要

Forecasts of travel demand are often based on data from the most recent time point, even when cross-sectional data is available from multiple time points. This is because forecasting models with similar contexts have higher transferability, and the context of the most recent time point is believed to be the most similar to the context of a future time point. In this paper, the author proposes a method for improving the forecasting performance of disaggregate travel demand models by utilising not only the most recent dataset but also an older dataset. The author assumes that the parameters are functions of time, which means that future parameter values can be forecast. These forecast parameters are then used for travel demand forecasting. This paper describes a case study of journeys to work mode choice analysis in Nagoya, Japan, using data collected in 1971, 1981, 1991, and 2001. Behaviours in 2001 are forecast using a model with only the most recent 1991 dataset and models that combine the 1971, 1981, and 1991 datasets. The models proposed by the author using data from three time points can provide better forecasts. This paper also discusses the functional forms for expressing parameter changes and questions the temporal transferability of not only alternative-specific constants but also level-of-service and socio-economic parameters.