Verification Tests for Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis Studies

摘要

This summary overviews recent efforts to develop a rigorous verification procedure that can be used to measure the credibility of sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) results. These analyses are important to justifying the use of advanced modeling and simulation tools for the design and regulation of reactor applications. This follows since for a credible decision making process that is based in large part on modeling and simulation, the results must be rigorously verified and the associated uncertainties properly quantified. A second goal focuses on using SA to understand the key sources of quantified uncertainties and devise strategies for their reduction, which will allow designers to increase design space and reduce unnecessary conservatism thereby leading to possible reactor uprates and life extension. To credibly carry out these goals, the results of SA and UQ analyses must be verified.