Defining Human Failure Events for Petroleum Risk Analysis

摘要

Human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have largely been developed in support of nuclear power control room operations. For example, the original HRA method, a Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) , features a set of simplified scenarios that match key actions primarily performed by reactor operators. However, actions taken in a nuclear power plant control room do not in all cases generalize to the types of actions performed elsewhere. As such, it can be challenging to extrapolate these scenarios to other domains like the petroleum industry. Moreover, the data basis for these nuclear centric actions may not match other industries. This mismatch can lead to questions about the non-nuclear validity of the human error probabilities (HEPs) derived from the HRA methods. However, it's important to note that the data in THERP, which has also served as the foundation for many other methods, was originally collected from nuclear weapons assembly work and later generalized to nuclear power. It is therefore reasonable to assume that with careful consideration, existing HRA methods and their underlying quantitative bases could reasonably be extrapolated to match other industries like oil and gas.