Looking at Technology through the Logistic Curve

摘要

Logistic curve is well known as the future prediction curve. But it will be rather effective to recognize in which step of the logistic curve the current technology is in to understand the technology required for each step. This paper divides the logistic curve into three step and explains the characteristic of each step is as follows: Second step: Technology quick developing stage and the age of specialists. Third step: Technology saturation period and control age, departure from which may be necessary. Transfer from third to first step: breakthrough and age of creation.