Forecasting of Quantum Dots Technology using Simple Logistic Growth Curve

摘要

Mastery of technology is the key to the success of a nation. One of the rapidly developing technologies in the fourth Industrial Revolution is nanotechnology, which is also said to be the beginning of the 5.0 industrial era. This paper is intended to forecast the life cycle from one of nanotechnology, quantum dots (QDs) technology, using patent literature and technological growth curve models. Patent data is taken from United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) from 1988 to 2016 using web scraping technique. From the literature study, logistic growth curve is considered as a common method to forecast the life cycle of technology. The upper limit used in this analysis is defined and a formula to evaluate is proposed. The fit of the transformed logistic curve is determined with the help of R-Square value. Parameters of logistic curve are estimated using nonlinear least square method and regression. The forecasting errors over the forecast region are estimated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). From the analysis, the QDs technology is categorized as an MATURE TECHNOLOGY. Current forecast of QDs technology maturity is that QDs is an important technology with high competitive impact and great integration into products and processes. Appications of QDs are now found in bioimaging, solar cells, LEDs, diode lasers, transistors, etc. Technology developers must be clear in understanding intellectual property boundaries and evaluating the benefits of forming strategic alliances to trade IP (intellectual property).