When it comes to predicting a President's foreign policy, there are basically two ways to go: you can look at the guy, or you can look at the world. Perspective I-which is part biography, part psychiatry-is more fun. The problem is that very often a President's past-and even his campaign rhetoric-is not prologue. In 1916, Woodrow Wilson pledged to keep the nation out of war; in 1940, Franklin Roosevelt promised to do the same. Richard Nixon spent his career as a die-hard anticommunist, but in the White House, he opened relations with China and ushered in detente with the U.S.S.R. George W. Bush once said America shouldn't tell the world what to do. Perspective 2 is more reliable. Instead of looking at the person and extrapolating out, you look at the world he inherits and work back in. The world deals the cards, and a President plays them as best he can.
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机译：在预测总统的外交政策时，基本上有两种方法可以走：可以看这个人，也可以看世界。透视I（一部分是传记，一部分是精神病学）更有趣。问题在于，总统的过去，甚至是竞选言论，常常不是开场白。 1916年，伍德罗·威尔逊（Woodrow Wilson）誓言要让该国摆脱战争； 1940年，富兰克林·罗斯福（Franklin Roosevelt）承诺也会这样做。理查德·尼克松（Richard Nixon）的职业生涯是顽固的反共主义者，但在白宫，他与中国建立了关系，并与美国乔治·W·布什（George W. Bush）缓和了一次，他说美国不应该告诉世界该怎么做。透视图2更可靠。不用看这个人并外推，而是看他继承和工作的世界。世界发行卡片，而总裁则尽其所能。
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