Application of weather forecasting model WRF for operational electric power network management-a case study for Phailin cyclone

摘要

Extreme weather events like tropical cyclone result in colossal catastrophe during landfall causing widespread inland flooding due to storm surge and also the post-landfall event result in extensive damage to infrastructural facilities and property hinterland. The state of Odisha located in east coast of India experienced a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) named Phailin during the post-monsoon season of October 2013. Timely warnings and alertness on storm surge coordinated with a massive evacuation effort by National Disaster Management Authorities (NDMA) were quite effective in minimizing the loss of human life. However, there was a trial of destruction due to extremely high winds and rainfall that followed during post-landfall causing extensive damage to property and major infrastructure facilities in the Odisha State. This study critically investigated the Phailin post-landfall phase focusing on the impact of high winds and rainfall on the power distribution network using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The study evaluated the spatial and temporal variability of wind speed and rainfall distribution from the WRF model configured for three different spatial domains and selecting the best available microphysics and land surface parameterization schemes. The proposed outer, intermediate, and inner domains had spatial resolutions of 27, 9, and 3km respectively and that provided the best estimate for onshore wind speed, track forecast, and rainfall distribution highly relevant for the management of power distribution and transmission network. In context to weather model application for the Indian region, this effort is novel and probably for the first time that linked a suitable customized weather model output to evaluate its impact on observed tripping in transmission network of electric power grids. The dynamic model outputs from WRF were compared with data from synchrophasors used in electrical technology that monitored the transient and dynamic behavior of power systems in real-time operations. A close examination of the results signifies that the atmospheric model performed exceptionally well in capturing the tripping time of power lines, and the overall knowledge obtained from this study has a broader scope to develop a framework for efficient planning operations of the power network, resource allocation, and emergency preparedness.