Atmospheric circulation characteristics during some El-Nino years in relation to Indian summer monsoon rainfall

摘要

Based on observed rainfall data of India Meteorological Department (IMD), correlation coefficients (CCs) have been computed between Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over different Nino regions and standardised pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. Significant positive CCs are found between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in winter and subsequent June rainfall over India. Concurrent with and subsequent to Indian summer monsoon, SOI shows significant positive CC with the mean rainfall of July to September (JAS). Significant negative CCs are found between JAS mean rain and the concurrent and following SST anomalies over Nino-3.4 region. On the basis of these correlations, it is proposed that the entire period of summer monsoon from June to September could be divided into two sub-periods such as: early summer (June) and mid-late summer (July to September) monsoon for prediction of ISMR in the extended range. In order to examine the characteristics of atmospheric circulation during some El-Nino years, divergent flow at 200 hPa and omega field at 500 hPa based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis have been studied in detail. Major significant southward shift of upper level divergent field from India are related to El-Nino and this shift may be responsible for causing droughts during several El-Nino years over India. Also vertical wind fields at 500 hPa show sinking motion over large parts of India and west Pacific and ascending motion over southern Indian Ocean, central and eastern Pacific during major drought years.