Trends of seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation in Southern Brazil for the 1913-2006 period

摘要

Long-term variations of monthly average maximum and minimum temperature (TMAX and TMIN) and precipitation records in southern Brazil are investigated for the 1913-2006 period. These variations are carefully analyzed for seasonal and annual indices, taken as regional averages. For this purpose, the serial correlation and trend of the indices are investigated using the run and Mann-Kendall tests. The significant trends are obtained from linear least-square fits. The annual and seasonal TMIN indices show significant warming trends with magnitudes (1.7℃ per 100 years for annual index) comparable to those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but lower than those found for the southern Brazil in another previous work. Regarding the two other variables, the indices show significant trends only for summer, being a cooling trend of 0.6℃ per 100 years for the TMAX and an increasing trend of 93 mm per 100 years over an average summer precipitation of 367 mm. Concerning the decadal analysis, the 1920s present the lowest annual, autumn, and spring TMIN and the 1990s, the highest ones. The 1970s is the decade with the lowest summer TMAX, and the 1940s the decade with the highest one. The driest decade is the 1940s and the wettest, the 1980s.