Comparison of artificial intelligence techniques for prediction of soil temperatures in Turkey

摘要

Soil temperature is a meteorological data directly affecting the formation and development of plants of all kinds. Soil temperatures are usually estimated with various models including the artificial neural networks (ANNs), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and multiple linear regression (MLR) models. Soil temperatures along with other climate data are recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) at specific locations all over Turkey. Soil temperatures are commonly measured at 5-, 10-, 20-, 50-, and 100-cm depths below the soil surface. In this study, the soil temperature data in monthly units measured at 261 stations in Turkey having records of at least 20 years were used to develop relevant models. Different input combinations were tested in the ANN and ANFIS models to estimate soil temperatures, and the best combination of significant explanatory variables turns out to be monthly minimum and maximum air temperatures, calendar month number, depth of soil, and monthly precipitation. Next, three standard error terms (mean absolute error (MAE, A degrees C), root mean squared error (RMSE, A degrees C), and determination coefficient (R (2) )) were employed to check the reliability of the test data results obtained through the ANN, ANFIS, and MLR models. ANFIS (RMSE 1.99; MAE 1.09; R (2) 0.98) is found to outperform both ANN and MLR (RMSE 5.80, 8.89; MAE 1.89, 2.36; R (2) 0.93, 0.91) in estimating soil temperature in Turkey.