Sir, Jeremy Blackham and Gwyn Prins have added their eloquent voices to a rising tide of concern about the (possibly irreversible) decline of the Royal Navy (RUSIJournal, April 2007). A quick analysis of their figures for frigate/destroyer commissioning rates reveals a stark trend, which may be worth spelling out.rnBetween 1980 and 1994 the Navy got, on average, two new ships per year. By 1995, all the units ordered during the final years of the Cold War had entered service, and the annual commissioning rate dropped abruptly to one a year. By 2003 all the frigates ordered by the previous government were in service and the Royal Navy has received none at all since then. By the time all six Type 45s currently on order are finally in service in around 2014, the commissioning rate for the period 2003-2014 will be just one ship every two years. Based on a nominal service life of twenty-five years this implies a surface combatant force of just a dozen ships. Not quite the Belgian Navy as the First Sea Lord has reportedly suggested, but no more than the Netherlands, Germany or Australia and fewer than Russia, China, Japan, India, France and maybe even Canada.
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