Extending technological trajectories to latest technological changes by overcoming time lags

摘要

Bibliometric methods of mapping technological trajectories encounter difficulty when identifying recent technological changes, mainly due to two forms of time lag: publication lag between invention and patent publication, and citation lag between publication and citation. To address this problem, we propose a novel way of identifying recent important publications, and of automatically connecting these to the patents-based main path. Our method reduces truncation bias due to publication and citation lags, and extends the technological trajectory to reach the latest technology at the research forefront. By generating links between patent and product, our approach can anticipate future product features that are driven by technological changes. In practice, our method enables managers to identify incremental innovation opportunities along mainstream technology dynamics, and further to detect signals of emerging technologies, wild cards, and new applications in other disciplines. An illustrative case regarding image technology is described and discussed.