A typology of technological changes: Theory of technological paradigm, trajectory and regime with a case study on the photographic industrial sector

摘要

Shifts in technological paradigms simultaneously disrupt existing industrial organization and raise opportunities for entrepreneurial companies. Analyzing the process of paradigm shift requires a systematic framework involves a variety of factors related to market conditions, industrial organization, and the broader technical environment. This research develops a typology as an analytical framework covering technological paradigm, trajectory and regime, and applies it to the photographic industry. The development of digital optical technologies disrupted existing film material and chemistry technologies in a paradigm shift from analog film cameras to digital cameras. This finding is in contrast to the dichotomy that technological competence can only either be disrupted or accumulated. A case study shows that separating a firm's sustainable competence from the disrupted aspect is critical during periods of technological change. Depending on its technology strategy, a firm could turn from technological innovator to technological defender when its technological competence is disrupted. Additionally, changes in the technological regime increase innovation opportunity, which attracts fiercer technological competition, thus decreasing appropriability. In the new paradigm, collective innovation has emerged as a new pattern in technological trajectory. The proposed typology is designed as a generic framework and should be applicable to technological changes in other industrial sectors.