A Pacemaker for the Long Wave

摘要

Exploratory eigenanalysis of fluctuations in the U.S. inflation rate and rate of economic growth 1790-1995 reveals cyclicalities of ～6, ～9, 18-19, and 54-57 years. There is strong evidence of entrainment by an 18.61- year geophysical cycle: periods of maximum lunisolar forcing are associated with troughs in building cycles and with the succession of long-wave crises: long-wave (deflationary) troughs, long-wave (stagflationary) peaks, and primary (disinflationary) troughs.