Identification of technology development trends based on subject-action-object analysis: The case of dye-sensitized solar cells

摘要

Identification of technology development trends is essential for supporting decision makers in forecasting and identifying related innovation activities and industrial growth. Different from the traditional technology development trends based on keyword-based quantitative methods, which usually predict trends by finding key technologies without showing how to develop them, our method allows the identification of future direction and industry goal for the technology domain and shows detailed paths for achieving them. Thus, our method has constructed technology roadmapping (TRM) with seven layers (material, technology, influencing factor, component product, goal, and future direction) on the basis of subject-action-object analysis. The detailed paths for developing this as a trend can be shown by the interaction among these TRM elements. In addition, the method also sets three indicators as a discriminating standard to find key players that can support the trend by engaging technological innovation scenarios. The case of a dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC) is exemplified to illustrate the detailed procedure of our method. The results reveal the development trends in the field of DSSCs, the detailed paths to achieve them, and key countries that support them. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.