A Systems-Level Understanding of Insurgent Involvement in Improvised Explosive Devices Activities

摘要

In asymmetric conflicts, improvised explosive devices (IEDs) are a favoured tool of insurgents. They have long been used by extremists, insurgents and resistant groups and are currently a primary threat in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US military has put a great deal of effort into reducing these types of attacks, ranging from improved methods for locating the devices to social models that attempt to predict where insurgent behavior will spread. By considering behavioral aspects leading up to an IED event as a system, we are able to evaluate intervention strategies that focus on the process by which individuals become involved in insurgent IED activities. This paper presents models of the influences and the behaviors associated with individuals involved in IED-related activities and treats them as a system. This approach allows us to explore societal systems to see how motivation (and deterrents to motivation) may play out.