System dynamics problem definition as an evolutionary process using the concept of ambiguity

摘要

Problem definition is the most important phase of the system dynamics modeling process. In this paper, we propose an approach to enrich the problem definition process based on a continuous and conscious effort to elicit the hidden ambiguities of the dynamic hypothesis, and transform these ambiguities into questions. The answers to these questions would in turn sharpen the definition of the problem, and improve the dynamic hypothesis. We show how this approach can help in building models that are more suited to the real-world dynamic problems and policy design. Finally, we proposed some guidelines for revealing ambiguities as a basis to problem definition and dynamic hypothesis in an iterative process.