The Future of Afghanistan and US Strategy in Central and South Asia

摘要

Karl Eikenberry, the former US Ambassador to Afghanistan, delivered the third IISS-Fullerton Lecture in Singapore on 18 June. Ambassador Eikenberry referred to President Obama's 2009 call for a comprehensive review of the war in Afghanistan, and the fact that this review highlighted the Taliban's 'political and military momentum'. With the aim of reversing that momentum, and strengthening the capacity of Afghanistan's government and security forces so that they could eventually assume responsibility for their country's future, in late 2009 the president ordered a US military and civilian' surge'. Within a year, Afghan President Hamid Karzai and NATO member-states' leaders agreed that the Afghan government would assume full responsibility for national security by the end of 2014. Already, 75% of the population is in areas controlled by - or soon to be controlled by - the Afghan National Security Forces. But Ambassador Eikenberry underlined what President Obama said at the NATO Summit in Chicago in May 2012: 'as Afghanistan stands up, it will not stand alone'. According to Eikenberry, it was likely that a 'NATO security assistance mission' and 'a US-led counterterrorist force', both 'enabled by US military infrastructure and support elements', would remain in Afghanistan after 2014.