The evolvement mechanism of hydro-meteorological elements under climate change and the interaction impacts in Xin'anjiang Basin, China

摘要

In order to explore the evolvement mechanism of hydrological elements under climate change and the interaction impacts, the hydro-meteorological elements, like temperature, precipitation, runoff, and evaporation, are studied by statistical analysis method and cause analysis approach in this paper. Initially, in terms of climate change across Anhui province, the average temperature data from 1960 to 2009 at 15 meteorological stations are selected from China Meteorological Data Sharing Network to analyze the spatio-temporal variation of temperature characteristics. Secondly, from the perspective of Xin'anjiang Basin, evolution rules of hydro-meteorological elements are studied through deviation variation of every 10years and the long-term development trend from 1981 to 2010 at 9 hydrological stations. And the influence of climate change on runoff is analyzed according to the principle of runoff formation, and the response of runoff to precipitation and temperature is predicted with the simulating future climate change by climate models. The results show that, through statistics, the average temperature in Anhui province is in a fluctuating downward state from 1960 to 1990. After 1990, the uptrend is significant. In Xin'anjiang Basin, the annual precipitation declines overally, especially at some stations it is obvious. The variation of runoff is in a downtrend consistent with precipitation, but it is not noticeable, taken as a whole. The average evaporation changes unremarkably, except in summer and winter. Under three scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1, it is assumed that temperature, precipitation and runoff are all increasing in the future. Through cause analysis, these mainly seem to be affected by the circulation of weather background and sea surface temperature. Based on the analysis of hydro-meteorological elements under climate change and the forecasting of their future changes, the development of regional water resources can be grasped which is of great significance for human interests to water supply scheme, water conservancy project planning, and the economic-social sustainablility.